秦皇岛市生活气象指数预报技术初探

针对秦皇岛市建设康养城市的气象服务需求,通过对秦皇岛地区近50年气候舒适度的深入研究,运用天气学、应用气象学原理,采用数学统计方法,分析了秦皇岛地区多种生活气象指数对气象要素的敏感度和依从性,确定了关键影响因子。综合考虑相关显著的气象要素,利用因子相乘等方法,建立了舒适度、户外游泳、海上观光、海钓、蓝天和户外锻炼等与秦皇岛居民生活息息相关的生活气象指数公式。采用文献检索法、访谈法、专家打分法等方法,基于人体安全、健康和舒适的角度,参考秦皇岛市近50年气候舒适度的研究结果,以及相关灾害性天气预报、预警发布标准等,根据人体适宜程度进行了单因子阈值确定。考虑专业气象服务实际需求,根据实用性原则,对指数计算结果进行了气象指数的分级,提出了基于气象视角的建议。依据气象台、海洋气象台等相关部门影响因子的预报结果,可计算出生活气象指数数值,根据等级划分标准,制作生活气象指数等级预报。生活气象指数预报指导人们更合理地安排生活和运动,既提高了人们的生活质量,也扩大了气象服务领域,有利于取得更高的社会效益和经济效益。

Preliminary Research on the Forecast of Life Meteorological Index in Qinhuangdao

In view of the need for meteorological services in building Qinhuangdaoa health and wellness city,through depth study of climate comfort degree in the last 50 years in Qinhuangdao area,applying the principles of synoptic meteorology and applied meteorology,and using mathematical statistics,we analyzed the sensitivity and compliance of various meteorological indices to meteorological elements in Qinhuangdao area and identified the key influencing factors.Considered the meteorological elements with significant relation,comprehensively,and by using the methods such as factor multiplication,the life meteorological index such as Comfort,Outdoor Swimming,sea tourism,Sea Fishing,Sky Blue,Outdoor Exercise and so on,which are closely related to the life of the people in Qinhuangdao were set up.By using the methods such as literature review,interview method,expert scoring method,based on human safety,health and comfort,and consulting the nearly 50 years research on climate comfort in Qinhuangdao area and related disaster weather forecast,early warning release standards,the threshold of single factor according to human suitability was determined.Considering the actual needs of professional meteorological services and according to the principle of practicality,we graded the index and put forward the suggestions based on the meteorological perspective.According to the forecast results of the relevant departments such as meteorological observatory and oceanic meteorological observatory,we could calculate the weather indices for life and make a weather index grade forecast for life according to classification criteria.The forecast of living weather index could guide people to arrange their life and sports more reasonably,and it could not only improved people’s quality of life,but also expanded the field of weather services,and it is also conducive to higher social and economic benefits.