海南省台风气象服务效益评估研究

考虑到台风气象服务效益影响因子的复杂性,利用2000—2015年海南省台风灾害损失数据和防御台风灾害行为效益评估三级指标体系调查问卷的统计数据,着重考虑防台减灾中政府组织领导、部门联防、公众防御能力、气象服务水平及不可避免损失因子,基于逆推算法构建了海南省台风气象服务效益评估模型,从防台减灾总效益中分离出其中的气象服务效益,实现了海南省台风气象服务效益的客观化定量化评估。结果表明:海南省台风灾害气象服务效益占台风直接经济损失的14%～49%,这与台风灾害过程中不可避免损失因子密切相关;2000—2015年海南台风灾害气象服务效益和台风直接经济损失均处于增长的态势,这表明当地社会经济的快速发展一定程度上使台风直接经济损失增长,同时伴随政府决策、部门联防、公众防御及气象服务能力的不断增强,气象服务效益将得到提升;台风气象服务效益与台风直接经济损失具有极高的相关性,一定程度上表明了当台风灾害影响较重时,气象服务显得尤其重要。

Evaluation Research of Typhoon Meteorological Service Benefits in Hainan Province

Considering the complexity of impact factors of typhoon meteorological service benefits and based on the typhoon disaster loss data in Hainan province during 2000-2015 and the statistics of questionnaires on a three level index system of benefits evaluation in typhoon disaster prevention, the Hainan typhoon meteorological service benefits evaluation model is constructed via the inverse extrapolation method, during which the government decision making, departments interaction, public defense, meteorological service level and inevitable loss factor in typhoon disaster prevention course are taken into account. With the model, the meteorological service benefits can be separated from the disaster prevention and mitigation benefits, and the objective and quantitative evaluation of typhoon meteorological service benefits in Hainan can be realized. The results show that the typhoon disaster meteorological service benefits account for 14%49% of the typhoon induced direct economic losses, which is closely related to the inevitable loss factors during typhoon disasters. Both of the typhoon disaster meteorological service benefits and typhoon induced direct economic losses in Hainan during 2000-2015 show up the increasing trends. This indicates that the rapid development of local social economy has led to the growth of economic losses by typhoon. Meanwhile, with the continuous improvement of government decision making, departments interaction, public defense and meteorological service level, the meteorological service benefits will be improved. Thus, the typhoon disaster meteorological service benefits and the typhoon induced direct economic losses are highly correlated, which means that, to some extent, the meteorological service is especially important when the typhoon damage is serious.