郑州市麦蚜发生气象条件分析及预报研究

以郑州市1998-2009年的麦蚜发生情况、气象观测资料为依据,结合麦蚜自身生物学特性,分析了郑州地区麦蚜发生特点和规律及其与光、温、水等环境气象条件之间的关系,并利用相关系数法进行因子普查,筛选出影响郑州市麦蚜发生和流行的主要地面气象因子为1月上旬平均气温、2月上旬降水、5月下旬日照和5月温雨系数。据此,利用当年上述地面气象因子预报值,建立了年度预报模型。模型历史拟合准确率为95.0%,对2010和2011年郑州市麦蚜发生程度的预报精度分别为92.2%和90.0%。

Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and the Forecast Study on the Wheat Aphid in Zhengzhou

The characteristics of the occurrence of wheat aphid and the relationship between the wheat aphid and the environment factors as light, temperature, moisture etc were analyzed based on the data of wheat aphid and meteorological observatory from 1998 to 2009 in Zhengzhou combining with the biological characterization of wheat aphid. The main surface meteorological factors such as average tem- perature in early January, precipitation in early February, sunshine in late May and temp-related-precipi- ration in May that affect the occurrence and prevalence of wheat aphid in Zhengzhou were identified by u- sing the correlation coefficient method. Based above information, a prediction model for the occurrence of wheat aphid was established based on the forecast value of related meteorological factors. The prediction accuracy for former value was 95.0% correlated to the history record and 92.2% ＆ 90.0% correlated to the occurrence of wheat aphid in 2010 and 2011.