信阳市人体舒适度指数变化及未来趋势分析

利用信阳气象站1961-2013年的观测资料计算逐日人体舒适度指数(CIHB),运用线性倾向估计、滑动平均和滑动标准差,分析了信阳CIHB的变化趋势,以及舒适日数变化趋势。在此基础上,运用R/S分析法对CIHB及舒适日数变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:1)信阳的年均CIHB呈显著上升趋势,线性趋势为0.016/a。春、冬季的平均CIHB呈显著上升趋势,且趋势强度相当。秋季平均CIHB虽呈上升趋势,但趋势不显著。夏季平均CIHB呈显著下降趋势。冬季CIHB标准差总体上没有明显的增大或减小趋势,夏季CIHB标准差不断减小,表明信阳出现极端天气气候事件的概率没有增加。2)信阳舒适日数呈显著增加趋势,达0.359天/a,冷、热日数呈减少趋势,趋势强度冷日数的大于热日数的。3)通过R/S分析,年、季平均CIHB具有长期相关的特征,未来的年及春、秋、冬季平均CIHB将继续上升,夏季平均CIHB将继续下降。年舒适日数具有长期相关的特征,未来年舒适日数仍将增加,年冷、热日数继续减少。

Variation and Future Trend Analysis of Comfort Index of Human Body in Xinyang City

The comfort index of human body (CIHB) was calculated based on the meteorological data of Xinyang city from 1961 to 2013.The variation trends of CIHB and comfort days in Xinyang city were analyzed using methods of linear trend estimate,moving average and standard deviation sliding.On the basis of above analysis,we forecasted the variation trend of CIHB and comfort days using R/S method.The conclusions showed as follows.1)The annual average CIHB in Xinyang showed a significant upward trend,with linear trend of 0.016 /a.The spring and winter average CIHB both showed significant upward trend,and the trend strengths were equivalent.The autumn average CIHB showed upward trend,while the trend was not significant.The summer average CIHB decreased significantly.There were no significant increase or decrease trend in winter CIHB standard deviation,while summer CIHB standard deviation was continuously decreasing,which indicated that the probability of extreme weather and climate events in Xinyang did not increase.2)The number of comfort days in Xinyang increased significantly with linear trend of 0.359 d/a.Cold and hot days both showed decreasing trend,and the trend of cold days is greater than that of hot days.3)Based on the R/S analysis,the average annual and seasonal CIHB have long term correlation.And the annual,spring,autumn and winter average CIHB would continually rise in the future,the summer average CIHB would continually decrease.The number of comfort days has long term correlated characteristics,and the number of comfort days would continually rise in the coming days while the number of cold and hot days continually reduce.