东北地区水稻霜冻灾害风险评估与区划

依据灾害系统理论,在综合考虑致灾因子自然属性和承灾体社会属性的基础上,建立风险评估模型,将传统的灾害研究方法与地理信息系统等现代技术手段相结合,利用1961—2010年东北地区182个气象站点逐日最低气温资料和1991—2006年172个水稻产区县（市）国土面积及社会经济资料,包括1981—2006年30个农业气象观测站水稻发育期资料,对东北地区水稻霜冻灾害风险进行评估。结果表明：东北地区可划分为高风险、次高风险、中等风险、次低风险和低风险5个水稻霜冻灾害风险区域。东北地区水稻霜冻灾害高风险区位于黑龙江省的黑河地区大部、伊春西部和吉林省的延边州西部、白山北部等地,而辽宁省的中南部等地风险较低。

The risk evaluation and division on rice frost damage in northeast China

Considering the natural attribute of disaster-causing factor and the social attribute of disaster affected body,a risk evaluation model was established based on a disaster system theory.According to the diurnal minimal temperature data at 182 weather stations from 1961 to 2010,land areas and the social economic data at 172 rice planting areas from 1991 to 2006 in the northeast China,the rice growth period data from 30 agricultural weather stations,the rice frost damage risk was assessed by a traditional method of disaster analysis and GIS technology.The results indicate that it could be divided into five rice frost damage risk areas in the northeast China,i.e.the highest,the high,the middle,the low and the lowest.The highest risk area is located in the most Heihe area and the west of Yichun in Heilongjiang province,and in the west of Yanbian and the north of Baishan in Jilin province,while the lowest one is in the middle and south of Liaoning province.