沈阳冬季供暖指数预报研究

利用2009年11月1日至2010年3月31日沈阳逐日6时次气温、气压、相对湿度、降水、风速、日照和云量等气象资料及同时间、同时次的供、回水温度等供暖资料,采用多元线性回归方法,建立供暖预报方程,制定供暖气象节能预报指数,并根据供暖指数大小确定供热量。结果表明：在确保室温达到18℃时,沈阳的供暖指数可以分为7级;供热量（即供、回水温度值）预报值与气温实况值相似度较高,而供热量实际值与气温实况值相差较大。在151 d的供暖期内,约60 d的供、回水温度与气温变化接近,占供暖日数的40%。采用供暖气象节能预报方法进行供暖,在改善供暖质量的同时也可达到节能减排的目的,可为供暖部门科学供暖、降低能耗提供科学依据。

An analysis of heating index forecast in winter in Shenyang

Based on the diurnal meteorological data with 4 hours interval from November 1,2009 to March 31,2010 such as temperature,air pressure,relative humidity,precipitation,wind speed,sunshine duration and cloud cover etc.and the simultaneous heating data including temperature of supply water and backwater,a forecast equation was established in Shenyang by a multi-regression method.A heating meteorological forecast index was developed and it could be used to determine the heating load.The results show that the heating meteorological forecast index could be divided into 7 levels if the indoor temperature must reach 18 ℃.The trends of predicted temperature of supply water and backwater and outdoor air temperature are close,while the trends of the real temperature of supply water and backwater and outdoor air temperature are different.The number of days that the trend of the real temperature of supply water and backwater is similar to that of outdoor air temperature is only 60 days and accounts for 40% of heating period（151 days）.The application of the heating meteorological forecast method could improve the quality of heating,control high-energy-consuming and high-emission and provide scientific references for the corresponding department.