1960—2010年中国南方地区夏季旱涝时空分布特征

基于1960—2010年中国南方地区51 a降水资料,进行Z指数变换,再利用降水距平场作REOF分区,并分别对各区域代表站点Z指数序列作线性趋势分析和M-K分析及Morlet小波分析。结果表明：中国南方5个分区岳阳站、广州站、丽水站、信阳站和巢湖站5个典型站点的年际及年代际波动幅度都比较明显,但均呈由干变湿的趋势。且5个站点分别在1973、1993、1992、2002年和1979年发生突变,突变后UF一直呈上升趋势,总体均由干变湿5,个分区旱涝异常具有相对一致的性质。中国南方地区夏季降水具有多时间尺度振荡的特点,存在2—3 a和5—6 a的周期。

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristic of summer drought and flood in the South China from 1960 to 2010

Based on the summer precipitation data from 213 stations in the South China from 1960 to 2010,Z index was analyzed.Rotated empirical orthogonal function（REOF）division was discussed by precipitation anomaly field.Z indices at regionally representative stations were analyzed by methods of a linear trend analysis,a Mann-Kendall analysis and a Morlet wavelet analysis.The results show that summer precipitation area of the South China is mainly divided into five regions by a REOF analysis method.The annual and inter-decadal variations of summer precipitation are significant in five regionally representative stations,and their trends change from arid to wet.The abrupt changes at Yueyang station,Guangzhou station,Lishui station,Xinyang station and Chaohu station appear in 1973,1993,1992,2002 and 1979,respectively.UF values are rising after the abrupt change.The occurrence of drought and flood in five divisions are consistent.Summer precipitation cycles are 2-3 years and 5-6 years in the South China.