中国北方地区冬季雨雪年度变化与大气气溶胶分布特征研究

近年来，随着大气观测技术的快速发展，为冬季大雪年际变化研究提供了一些新的观测事实，增加了新的认识。认为大气环流对降雪的年际变化的影响只是重要方面之一。新的观测事实启示研究者，冬雪的年际变化和差异还可能与其他影响气候变化有更为复杂的因素——大气气溶胶特征有关。基于1980-2008年中国气象台站降水量资料和1980-2005年北方地区大气气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）资料，研究中国北方地区大范围多雨雪以及少雨雪年度变化与大气气溶胶分布特征的关系。结果表明：1980-2008年，中国北方地区典型的多雨雪年为1980、1984、1989、1993、1998、2003年和2006年；少雨雪年为1982-1983、1985-1988、1997、2001年和2005年。根据1980-2005年华北逐年冬半年雨雪总量与北方地区同期AOD相关分析，揭示中国北方地区雨雪年度变化与气溶胶光学厚度（AOD_550m）的年度变化存在正相关，相关系数达到0．001的显著性水平。同期资料AOD。。。分析表明，中国北方地区冬季多雨雪与少雨年大气气溶胶光学厚度差异显著，多雨雪年大气气溶胶光学厚度显著偏厚，中国华北北部、东北南部地区AOD正距平的平均值达到1×10。-5×10^-3，冬季北方地区少雨雪年与此差异显著，AOD为显著负距平，其平均值为-5×10^-3。

Characteristics of annual variations of winter rain/snow and atmospheric aerosol distributions in the north of China

With the rapid development of atmospheric observation technology in recent years, it provides some new observational facts for the analysis of the interannual variations of the heavy snow in winter and increases some new understanding. It is considered that the effect of atmospheric circulation on annual variations of winter snowfall is important, while it is just one of most aspects. New observational facts indicate that the inter-annual variations and differences of winter snow may be related to atmospheric aerosol. According to precipitation data from 279 weather stations from 1980 to 2008 and atmospheric aerosol optical depth （AOD） data from 1980 to 2005 in the north of China, the relationships between amount of winter rain/snow and AOD were analyzed. The results indicate that the typical years with more winter rain/snow are 1980,1984,1989,1993,1998,2003 and 2006 in the north of China,while those with less winter rain/snow are 1982-1983,1985-1988,1997,2001 and 2005. The correlation analysis between the total winter snowfall and synchronous AOD in the north of China shows that the annual variation of winter rain/snow is in a positive correlation with AOD_550m, and the correlation coefficient is significant at 0. 001 levels. The differences of AOD between years having more and less rain/snow are significant. Atmospheric AOD is clearly larger in the years having more rain/snow, and the average of positive anomaly of AOD reaches 1 × 10-3-5 × 10-3 in the north of North China and the south of Northeast China. However,the difference relative to this value is significant in the years having less rain/snow. The atmospheric AOD shows a significantly negative anomaly and the average is -5 x 10^-3