下投式探空资料对Debby飓风路径预报影响的数值试验

在飓风路径的数值预报中，对于初始场的要求很高，然而，由于初始资料的缺乏，经常导致路径预报的误差较大，尤其是当飓风处于远离陆地的海上时，这种误差更大，通过利用UM模式在Debby飓风活动期间，对下投式探空仪所获取探空资料，采用不同使用方案的三个时次共计10次数值试验的结论分析，给出一些有意义的 结论，即非实时资料对实时资料的有效补充，能够提高飓风路径预报精度，而在众多气象要素场中，风场和湿度场对飓风路径预报的影响更大。

The impact of dropsonde data on forecasts of Hurricane Debby by the Meteorological Office Unified Model

The numerical product of hurricane tracks vastly depends on initial observation fields. However, the forecast error is very large because of lack of observational data, especially when hurricanes are over the sea.This paper shows that extra non-real-time data (dropsonde data) can improve hurricane track forecasts compared with real-time observational data, and that the wind and relative humidity components of the dropsonde data have the greatest impact on the track forecasts.