A Regional Ensemble Forecast System for Stratiform Precipitation Events in Northern China. Part I: A Case Study |
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Authors: | ZHU Jiangshan Fanyou KONG and LEI Hengchi |
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Institution: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, USA,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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Abstract: | A single-model, short-range, ensemble forecasting system (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Regional Ensemble Forecast System,
IAP REFS) with 15-km grid spacing, configured with multiple initial conditions, multiple lateral boundary conditions, and
multiple physics parameterizations with 11 ensemble members, was developed using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model
Advanced Research modeling system for prediction of stratiform precipitation events in northern China. This is the first part
of a broader research project to develop a novel cloud-seeding operational system in a probabilistic framework. The ensemble
perturbations were extracted from selected members of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting
System (NCEP GEFS) forecasts, and an inflation factor of two was applied to compensate for the lack of spread in the GEFS
forecasts over the research region. Experiments on an actual stratiform precipitation case that occurred on 5–7 June 2009
in northern China were conducted to validate the ensemble system. The IAP REFS system had reasonably good performance in predicting
the observed stratiform precipitation system. The perturbation inflation enlarged the ensemble spread and alleviated the underdispersion
caused by parent forecasts. Centering the extracted perturbations on higher-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System forecasts
resulted in less ensemble mean root-mean-square error and better accuracy in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts
(PQPF). However, the perturbation inflation and recentering had less effect on near-surface-level variables compared to the
mid-level variables, and its influence on PQPF resolution was limited as well. |
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Keywords: | short-range ensemble forecast rain enhancement operation probabilistic forecast |
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