济宁市城市化对气温的影响

利用1981—2010年济宁及周边郊区3县台站的气温资料，研究分析了济宁城区、郊区的气温变化趋势和特点，并探讨了城市化发展对济宁城郊温度的影响。研究发现：（1）近30a来，尽管济宁城区、郊区最高气温、年平均气温、最低气温均呈显著增加趋势，且增温幅度依次增大，但城、郊气温增幅有所差异。其中，年平均气温、最低气温增温幅度郊区高于城区，而最高气温增幅二者相差不大，这表明城市化发展对最低气温的影响最大。此外，一年之中城、郊增暖均表现为：冬季、春季增幅最大，秋季次之，夏季最弱，且城、郊温差逐渐缩小；（2）济宁城市热岛强度总体呈上升趋势，但不同年代、不同季节变化趋势不尽相同。其中，1980年代热岛上升微弱，总体低于平均水平，而1990年代维持在一个较高的水平，2000年以后又明显下降；除秋季外，热岛强度均呈现缓慢上升趋势，其中冬季最强，夏季最弱。城市热岛效应具有明显的季节和日变化特征，表现为：冬半年明显高于夏半年，白天明显低于夜间；（3）济宁市区人口和建成区面积与城市热岛具有很大的相关性，两者的相关系数分别为0．81和0．75。

Effects of the Urbanization Process on Temperature in Ji＇ ning of Shandong Province

By using the temperature data at the weather station of Ji＇ ning and the other 3 stations in its surrounding counties including Yanzhou, Wenshang and Jiaxiang during 1981 - 2010, this paper analyzed the trends and characteristics of temperature in the urban and suburbs of Ji＇ ning. On this basis, the influence of the urbanization development of Ji＇ ning on temperature was explored further. Results show that the temperature of the urban and the suburbs of Ji＇ ning in recent 30 years increased by more than 1 ℃ with climatic tendency rate of about 0.35 ℃/10 a and O. 38 ℃/10 a, respectively, and the difference of temperature between the urban and the sub- urbs reduced gradually. The temperature increments were obvious in winter and spring in both the urban and suburbs, while the smal- lest in summer. The increments of maximum temperature in the suburbs of Ji＇ ning were very close to the urban, but for minimum tem- perature in suburbs, it was far above that in the urban, which resulted in temperature daily range minished in suburbs. Therefore, the influence of urbanization on minimum temperature was significant but on maximum temperature it was weak. Overall, the intensity of the urban heat island in Ji＇ ning during 1981 - 2010 was increasing with the average value of 0.5 ~C. The heat island kept increase from 1981 to 1990, then maintained at a high level during 1991 -2000, and after that decreased sharply to the average level. The ur- ban heat island of Jibing had obvious monthly and diurnal variations. The heat island in winter half year was significantly higher than that in summer one. The intensity of heat island in winter was strongest but weakest in summer. In addition, the annual changes show that the heat island rose slowly for all seasons except fall, especially after 2000, the decline of heat island in fall contributed a lot to slow down the annual heat island. The heat island at daytime was significantly lower than that at night and was weakest around noon. The urban heat island was also found great relevance to the population and built - up area in Ji＇ ning, with the correlation coefficient of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively.