控制论与人工影响天气 I: 人工增雨作业中的正反问题及最优调控

利用自然控制论的观点,重新审视了人工影响天气诸多方面的问题,提出了人工调控有限区域天气的正问题和反问题,并对最优调控问题,根据观测实例进行了分析讨论.结果表明,自然控制论是指导开展人工影响天气的一个好的理论框架,不仅要加强观测以了解自然降水过程,发展数值模式以更好的模拟实际降水过程,更需要开展反问题的研究;对最优调控的讨论表明,不能仅仅局限于有无催化可能,更应全面考虑降水云系的结构.

Cybernetics in the Artificial Weather Modification I. Direct and Inverse or Optimal Controlling Problem for Precipitation Enhancement Operation

A review concerning the current situation of weather modifications based on the theory of natural cybernetics is given. The authors proposed that the direct as well as the inverse problems for weather modifications should be investigated. Based on a case study, the optimal controlling problem for weather modification operation is discussed. The results show that natural cybernetics is a good theoretical framework to instruct weather modifications. Not only observations of natural weather precipitation processes should be strengthened and numerical models to simulate them should be developed, but also the inverse problem, i.e., the optimal controlling problem for the weather modification should be studied. It is not only to consider the potentiality of rain enhancement by cloud seeding, but also need to investigate the temporal evolution and macro-micro-structures of precipitation cloud in the relevant weather system.