关税变化对中国贸易碳排放的影响研究北大核心CSCD

为了适应气候变化,中国作为世界上产生碳排放最多的国家,正在从多方面制定减少碳排放的计划,并提出了2060年实现碳中和的目标。随着贸易全球化,全球其他国家消费的排放越来越多地在中国生产。国家间的贸易条件受政策影响很大,关税的高低会导致商品的贸易出现变化,进而导致进出口商品包含排放的变化。本文结合中美两国的贸易冲突,对中美两国加征关税后的贸易变化进行模拟,结合全球贸易分析模型的结果与投入产出分析法,定量地研究了关税变动后中国进出口隐含排放的变化。研究发现,在中美加征关税后,中美两国的贸易量大幅减少,并导致两国贸易涉及的排放变少,而中国向世界出口的排放反而有所增加。另外,由于进口市场被冲击,中国从全世界进口的排放明显变少,进而导致中国净出口的碳排放在加征关税后变多,且集中于能源密集型产业。从结果看,中国在贸易受限的情况下依旧向世界出口了大量排放,通过贸易合作来促进新能源产业的进步或许可以更好地解决减排需求。

China's Carbon Emissions in International Trade under Tariff Adjustments

To adapt to climate change, China, as the country creating the highest levels of carbon emissions in the world, is formulating a carbon emission reduction plan. The plan under development considers many aspects of emission generation and proposes a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. With the ever-increasing globalization of trade, the carbon emissions produced locally in China are increasingly impacting other countries worldwide. Thus, the carbon policies negotiated as terms of trade between countries can greatly impact worldwide carbon emission levels. Similarly, setting the level of tariffs based on emission levels will bring about significant changes in the international trade for goods. Consequently, this will likely lead to changes in the treatment of emissions in import and export agreements. This article examines the trade conflicts between China and the United States. In doing so, it simulates the additional tariffs imposed by China and the United States and combines the results of the global trade analysis model and the input–output analysis method. It concludes by quantitatively analyzing the changes in China’s hidden import and export emissions under the proposed tariff changes. The article finds that after China and the United States have hypothetically imposed tariffs, although the trade between China and the United States and the emissions thereof would be greatly reduced, the emissions of China’s exports to the world nonetheless would have significantly increased. In addition, due to the impact of the import market, China’s emissions from imports worldwide would have been significantly reduced, which would lead to an increase in China’s net exports of carbon emissions after tariffs. These exports would be concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Based on a review of the current results, China continues to export a significant amount of emissions to the world despite applicable trade restrictions. Promoting the progress of the new energy industry through trade may more efficiently solve the problem of carbon emission reduction.