HUBEX期间暴雨模拟研究

利用中尺度数值预报模式MM4和淮河流域能量与水循环试验(HUBEX)外场观测资料,对1998和1999两年HUBEX期间的暴雨进行数值模拟.同时,将处理后的云图资料输入到MM4中,改变水汽场条件进行数值模拟,作为敏感试验,并且与不用云图资料的控制试验作比较.两种模拟结果与地面试验区的雨量资料对比分析表明,MM4对夏季淮河流域的强降水有较好的预报能力.

Numerical Simulation of Heavy Rain in HUBEX Period

During the field observation of HUBEX in 1998 and 1999, a lot of routine, satellite and rainfall data have been obtained. In this paper, the routine data were put into the meso-scale model MM4, two heavy rain processes were simulated by the model. At the same time, the satellite data were inputted to MM4, it modifies the condition of initial humidity field, and another result of numerical simulation can be obtained. Analysis of two simulation results and rainfall, it is show that MM4 is good capability for forecasting the heavy rain in summer in the Huaihe River basin. The result of numerical prediction of heavy rain by use of satellite data is better than without using that.