| 山东半岛风电爬坡事件的识别与天气分析研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭燕玲,赵晶,周林,张文煜,郭振海.山东半岛风电爬坡事件的识别与天气分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(1):97-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭燕玲 赵晶 周林 张文煜 郭振海 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000,中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029,北京动力机械研究所, 北京 100074,兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000,中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41475013 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据山东省24个风电场2013年全年每15 min的风电输出功率实测数据以及相应的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)气象预测数据和FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料,分析了区域大规模风电爬坡现象与大尺度天气系统演变的联系。结果显示,大尺度天气系统,特别是阻塞高压系统,是诱发山东地区大规模风电爬坡的重要因素;爬坡事件的预测应当考虑天气演变的因素。进一步结合旋转门(The Swinging Door,TSD)算法重新讨论了爬坡事件的定义与识别,并在此基础上分析了爬坡事件的特征及其可预报性;并指出风电功率上报、考核制度应当重点考虑爬坡时间段的预测水平,以提高电网运行的稳定性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风功率爬坡 天气系统演变 TSD算法 可预报性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/1/30 0:00:00 |
A Study on the Identification and Synoptic Analysis of Wind Ramp Events in Shandong Peninsula |
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| GUO Yanling,ZHAO Jing,ZHOU Lin,ZHANG Wenyu and GUO Zhenhai.A Study on the Identification and Synoptic Analysis of Wind Ramp Events in Shandong Peninsula[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(1):97-107. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yanling ZHAO Jing ZHOU Lin ZHANG Wenyu and GUO Zhenhai |
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| Institution: | Collage of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Beijing Power Machinery Institute, Beijing 100074,Collage of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 and State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between regional large-scale wind power ramp and large-scale weather system based on real-time 15-min power outputs of 24 wind farms in Shandong Province in 2013 and related WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) forecasting data and the FNL (Final Operational Global Analysis) re-analysis data. Results indicate that large-scale weather systems, especially the blocking high, are the important reason that induces the large-scale wind power ramp in Shandong Province. Using the swinging door algorithm, the wind power ramp events are re-defined and recognized first. The characteristics and predictability of wind power ramp events are then analyzed. It is found that the wind power report-check regulation should seriously consider the forecasting accuracy during the ramp events for the purpose to improve the stability of grid operation. |
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| Keywords: | Wind power ramp event Weather system evolution TSD algorithm Predictability |
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