关于2006年西太平洋台风活动频次的气候预测试验

这是首次利用气候模式对我国2006年夏季西太平洋地区台风活动频次的实时气候预测的报告。根据这个初步的预测试验结果分析,西太平洋地区夏季(6~10月)对流层低层为异常辐散区而高层为异常辐合区,大气顶向外长波辐射为正距平,对流活动异常偏弱;同时,该地区对流层上下层纬向风的切变幅度异常偏大;海洋温度的距平值很小。综合这些气候背景条件,今年西太平洋的台风生成数量将可能比正常年份偏少一些。当然,由于台风生成发展的复杂性,这一预测还有不确定性。

Real-Time Climate Prediction Experiment for the Typhoon Frequency in the Western North Pacific for 2006

This paper reports the first real-time climate numerical experiment aiming at the prediction of the typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific(WNP) for the current year 2006.The prediction results show that the convective activities are reduced,the magnitude of the vertical zonal wind shear is increased,and there are anomalous high-level convergence and low-level divergence during the June-October in the WNP.The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies in WNP are very small.Therefore,the results suggest that there maybe less typhoon genesis in WNP compared to the normal years.However,there are uncertainties in the prediction because of the complexity in the typhoon genesis and development in the region.