| 非线性动态系统预报的一种方法初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 张万诚,王宇,曹杰.非线性动态系统预报的一种方法初探[J].大气科学,1997,21(1):118-122. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张万诚 王宇 曹杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.云南省红河哈尼族彝族自治州气象局,蒙自 661100 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出一种非线性动态系统预报方法，其特点是初步考虑了预报因子的突变性和时变参数的非平稳性。数值实例说明:这种方法的预报准确性比一般多层递阶方法要好。
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| 关 键 词： | 非线性 多层递阶 突变 时变 |
The Primary Study on a Method of Nonlinear Dynamic System Prediction |
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| Zhang Wangcheng,Wang Yu and Cao Jie.The Primary Study on a Method of Nonlinear Dynamic System Prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1997,21(1):118-122. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Wangcheng Wang Yu and Cao Jie |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a method of nonlinear dynamic system prediction is given. The catastrophe of predictor and the unbalance of time dependent parameters are considered in thes method. The results of the numerical experiments have shown that the prediction accuracy of using this nonlinear dynamic prediction system is more effective them that of using the gereral recursive estimating method. |
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| Keywords: | nonlinear multilevel recursion method catastrophe time changing |
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