| 黑龙江省作物生长动态模式预测产量的方法及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王育光,姜丽霞,杜春英,李秀芬,季生太.黑龙江省作物生长动态模式预测产量的方法及应用[J].黑龙江气象,2003(3):15-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王育光 姜丽霞 杜春英 李秀芬 季生太 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省气象科学研究所,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分析作物干物质累积曲线的基础上，分析温度、降水等气候因子与作物干物质累积量的关系，而干物质累积量又与气候产量有着直接的关系。因此，在干物质累积模型的基础上，建立作物生长动态模式，该模式主要用于四大主栽作物玉米、大豆、水稻及小麦的产量预测。利用模式预测了2001～2002年黑龙江省四大作物的单产，其精确度在94％左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 黑龙江 作物生长 产量预测 于物质累积曲线 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-252X(2003)03-0015-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年5月12日 |
Method and Applcation of the Crop Growth Dynamic Model to Forecast Yields in the Hei longjiang Province |
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| WANG Yu -guang,JIANG Li -xia,DU Chun-ying,LI Xiu -fen,JI Sheng -tai.Method and Applcation of the Crop Growth Dynamic Model to Forecast Yields in the Hei longjiang Province[J].Heilongjiang Meteorology,2003(3):15-17. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yu -guang JIANG Li -xia DU Chun-ying LI Xiu -fen JI Sheng -tai |
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| Abstract: | By investigating the growth curve of crop dry matter,This paper analyzes the relationship between climatic f actors such as temperature prelipitation,and the accumulated quantity of crop dry matter which is related to climatic yield directly.Therefore,According to the model of the accumulated dry matter,the Crop Growth Dynamic Model(CGDM)is founded,which is used to predict grain yields for the f our main crops which are maize,soybean,rice and wheat.The CGDM was appli ed to years2001and 2002.For what regards yield s per hectare the rate of accuracy of f orecasting is of the order of 94%. |
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| Keywords: | The growth curve of dry matter Model Yield forecasting Four main crop |
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