| 隐含趋势气候序列的均生函数建模 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘生长,曹鸿兴.隐含趋势气候序列的均生函数建模[J].南京气象学院学报,1994,17(3):297-302. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘生长 曹鸿兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象出版社，中国气象科学研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对气候序列中有周期性振荡和常含有向上递增或向下递减的倾向，提出对均生函数进行累加延拓，将其与均生函数周期延拓序列一起进行筛选，从而建立优效的预测模型，并给出淮河汛期降水和全球气温序列的建模与预测实例。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候序列 预测模型 均生函数 累加 |
MODEL ESTABLISHMENT OF CLIMATE SERIES IMPLICITLY CONTAINING A TREND BY MEAN VALUE GENERATING FUNCTION |
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| Liu Shengchang.MODEL ESTABLISHMENT OF CLIMATE SERIES IMPLICITLY CONTAINING A TREND BY MEAN VALUE GENERATING FUNCTION[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,1994,17(3):297-302. |
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| Authors: | Liu Shengchang |
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| Abstract: | In view of the fact that a climatic time series usuaily contains a tendency to pro-gressively decrease in magnitude,up and downward,in addition to periodic oscillation,ascheme is proposed for successive addition continuation of mean value generating function(MGF),which,together with the continuation sequence of the MGF's period,is screened.Onthis basis,a highly-effective prediction model is established,and examples are given for themodelling and predicting in terms of Huaihe River wet-season rainfall data and global tem-perature series. |
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| Keywords: | climatic time series prediction model mean value generating function successive addition Continuation |
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