IPCC AR4多模式对海河流域气候模拟能力的评估及预估

根据海河流域1961-2010年气象观测资料,检验IPCC AR4中全球气候模式和多模式集合的模拟能力,并预估未来2011-2050年气候变化的可能趋势,结果表明:全球气候模式以及多模式集合对海河流域都具有一定的模拟能力,其中MIUB_ECHO_G模式和多模式集合具有相对较好的模拟能力.海河流域气温和降水未来情景预估表明:气温整体呈现增加趋势,尤其是A1B情景下各模式的年升温率均高于全国水平;未来降水也呈现增加趋势,在A1B和B1情景下,各模式都为夏季降水增加显著.A2情景下,春季时各模式降水均增加显著,A1B情景下,MIUB_ECHO_G模式模拟在2013年出现突变,降水量出现显著增长,A2情景下,MIUB_ECHO_G模式和多模式集合模拟的降水量则是在2031年和2001年出现突变,出现显著增长.

Evaluation of the simulation performance and projection of climate change by IPCC AR4 global climate models on Haihe river basin

The temperature and precipitation observation data in Haihe river basin during 1961-2010 are used to evaluate the simulation performance of 20 IPCC AR4 Climate Models and Multi-Model ensemble.The results show that all the climate models underestimate surface air temperature,and spatial correlation coefficients reached 0.7.Most climate models overestimate precipitation in the Haihe river basin.Only a few models(MIUB_ECHO_G model and Multi-Model ensemble) show roughly consistent with the observation data.The projection results show that the temperature would increase,especially under SRES-A1B,the annual temperature increase is higher in Haihe river basin than in other parts of China projected by all climate models.Future precipitation would rise too,and significant precipitation increase is projected by all models under SRES-A1B and SRES-B1.The spring precipitation would increase significantly under SRES-A2.Catastrophe point of MIUB_ECHO_G model appears in 2013 under SRES-A1B,when precipitation would increase drastically.While under SRES-A2,catastrophe point of MIUB_ECHO_G model and Multi-Model ensemble appear in 2031 and 2001,respectively.