长三角地区雾的时空分布及频次模型研究

根据1980—2006年长三角地区6个站点累计27a的雾资料,分析了长江三角洲地区雾的时间、空间分布特征。结果表明,秋末、冬季和春季长江三角洲地区雾频次较多,夏季较少,年平均雾日数呈缓慢减少趋势;雾区域分布不均匀,总体说来是东多西少。在此基础上,用时间序列方法建立了雾频次预测模型,并对2007年1—12月各月的雾频次进行预测检验,结果表明预测值与实际值误差较小,该模型具备较好的预测能力。

A Study on Spatial and Temporal Distribution and a Frequency Forecasting Model of Fogs over the Yangtze River Delta

Based on the fog data from 6 stations over the Yangtze River Delta between 1980 and 2006,the spatial and temporal characteristics of fogs over Yangtze River Delta are analyzed.The results show that there are more fog days in late autumn,winter and spring while fewer in summer and that the yearly average number of fog days is on a decreasing trend.The spatial distribution is very irregular:in general,there are more fogs in the east and fewer in the west.On this basis,a fog frequency forecasting model is esta...