温度变化对南京城市电力负荷的影响

应用计量经济学中格兰杰因果关系检验方法,分析了温度变化对中国南京城市用电量和电力负荷的影响,认为南京日平均温度与日最大电力负荷、日用电量之间存在着较显著的相关性.气温变化对日最大电力负荷和日用电量具有不同的季节性和周期性影响,气温对用电量的短期影响最显著,对电力负荷的影响更具明显的季节性特征.通过不同月份电力负荷对气温变化敏感性的分析,进一步揭示了南京市气温变化与电力消费之间的季节变动特征,有利于气象与能源部门共同应对未来气候变化带来的城市能源问题.

Impact of Temperature Change on Urban Electric Power Load in Nanjing

Granger Causality Test can effectively avoid the false correlation phenomena in common cor-relation analyses. This paper employs Granger Causality Test to analyze the impact of temperature change on urban electricity consumption (EC) and power load (PL) in Nanjing, China. Results show that there exists an obvious relationship between daily mean temperature and daily maximum PL, and daily EC in Nanjing. Temperature change has seasonal and periodical impact on PL and EC,respective-iy. Impact of temperature on EC is more obvious in short period, and the impact on PL has more signifi-cant seasonal character. Sensitivity analysis of PL on temperature change in different months reveals the seasonal relation between temperature change and EC in Nanjing, which is beneficial for meteorological department and energy department working together to face the urban energy issue brought by future climate change.