全球变暖对我国亚热带北界的影响

根据历史气候暖期亚热带北界变迁和划分亚热带北界的热量指标，借助于文献「１」模拟ＣＯ２倍增的全球平均温度状况，采用几种气候指标推估的经验公式，预测未来气候变暖背景下我国亚热带北界的位置。结果表明，ＣＯ２倍增状况下，我国亚热带北界平均约北移３个纬度，其界线将变为西南向东北的波形走向。

EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CHANGE IN NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ZONE OF CHINA

Following the thermal index for defining the northern limit of the subtropical zone during the warming in history and the simulated global mean temperature rise in the presence of CO 2 doubling, the position of the limit is predicted for the furture in terms of the empirical expression formulated from a range of climatic indices. Results show that the northern limit will be shifted, on average, 3 degrees of latitude northward, with the SW NE orientation.