江苏春季霜冻气候变化特征及其未来可能变化趋势

在利用江苏省35站1961-2008年气象观测资料分析春霜冻发生时空演变特征的基础上，利用“WCRP”的耦合模式比较计划一阶段3的多模式未来气候数据，分析了未来不同气候变化情景下江苏省春霜冻变化趋势。结果表明：近48a来，江苏省终霜冻期显著提早、春霜冻日数明显减少；终霜冻期和春霜冻日数均在20世纪90年代后期发生气候突变。在未来全球气候变化背景下，江苏的终霜冻期将进一步明显提前，其中在中排放情景下（A1B），2020s终霜冻期将比1961-1999平均终霜冻期提前4．6～9．6d，至2060s将提前14．6～17．7d；在高排放情景下（A2），2020s将提前7．3～11．3d，至2060s将提前12．8～16．5d；在低排放情景下（B1），2020s将提前5．3～10．2d，至2060s将提前9．4～14．2d。

Historical variation and possible future trends of spring frost in Jiangsu Province

Spatial and temporal variations of spring frost are identified based on the historical measure- ments from 35 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2008. Then, using the climate data projected by models in ＂WCRP＂ coupled model intercomparison program-phase 3, the future trend of spring frost is analyzed under different climate conditions. Results show that, in recent 48 years, the date of final spring frost come earlier significantly in Jiangsu Province. Meanwhile, the days of spring frost decrease markedly. Both the date of final spring frost and the days of spring frost change abruptly in the late 1990s. Future global climate change will considerably cause the date of final spring frost to end earlier. Compared with the average date from 1961 to 1999, the date of final spring frost will be 4. 6--9.6 d and 14. 6--17.7 d earlier in 2020s and 2060s under the condition of moderate emission （A1B） ,7.3--11.3 d and 12. 8--16.5 d earlier in 2020s and 2060s under the condition of high emis- sion（A2） ,and 5.3--10. 2 d and 9.4--14. 2 d earlier in 2020s and 2060s under the condition of low e- mission （ B 1 ）, respectively.