粮食生产风险水平的概率分布计算方法

任意选取中国各地40a以上粮食产量序列，利用正态分布曲线，偏态分布正态化以及解析概率密度曲线积分等方法分虽获得粮食产量序列的风险概率，该结果反映了粮食生产不同增减产幅度及相应的概率大小。进行风险估计可以为发展生产，防灾抗灾提供参考。

Grain Yield Risk Level Calculated by Probability Distribution

There have been lots of methods on the prediction of grain yield,however these predicted results could not be very accurate due to all kinds of factors that affect on grain yield. In this article,three different kinds of theoretic probability methods (i.e,the normal distribution curve probability,converting the abnormal distribution curve to normal curve,the integration of analytical probability density curve are used to calculate the probability of risk of any given grain yield sequence. These methods showed a wide range of increase and decrease of the crop yield as well as the corresponding high and low probability,which can provide good references to the development of production,natural disaster prevention and alleviation.