湖州市用电需求特性及其与气象条件的关系

通过计算日用电量气象变化率lml、日最大用电负荷气象变化率lmh,分析了湖州市2006—2008年用电量及最大用电负荷的变化特征及其与气象要素的关系,着重研究了平均气温、最高气温、最低气温对用电量及最大用电负荷的影响,建立了日最大用电负荷、日用电量的预测模型。结果表明：用电量及最大用电负荷表现出年周期变化,且稳步递增,但月差异明显;不同月份不同气象因子对用电量及最大用电负荷的影响各有不同,lmh、lml与气象因子相关性显著的月份集中在6—10月;在不同温度范围,气温对用电量及最大用电负荷的影响程度也不同,随着气温变化,用电量和最大用电负荷的变化率最大可达20%;在7月、8月,气温升高1℃时,lmh、lml的变化最大,可达2%～5%。

Characteristics of electricity demand and its relationship with meteorological condition in Huzhou City

The characteristics of electricity consumption and maximum electrical load,and their relationships with meteorological elements were analyzed by calculating the change rate of daily electricity consumption（lml）and maximum electrical load（lmh）in Huzhou City,China from 2006 to 2008.This paper emphatically introduced the effects of mean temperature,minimum temperature and maximum temperature on the electricity consumption and maximum electrical load,and established the forecast model of electricity consumption and maximum electrical load.Results show that the daily electricity consumption and maximum electrical load have interannual variation characteristics and increasing trends from 2006 to 2008,but with obvious monthly differences.The effects of different meteorological elements on electricity consumption and maximum electrical load are different in each month,and the relations between lml（lmh）and meteorological elements are significantly from June to October.In different temperature range,the influences of temperature on electricity consumption and maximum electrical load are different,and the electricity consumption and maximum electrical load have maximum change rate of 20%.The values of lml and lmh can reach 2%—5% when temperature increases 1 ℃ in July and August.