集合预报产品释用方法的研究

提出一种动力与统计相结合的集合预报产品的动力统计释用方法，该方法从大尺度大气动力学方程组出发，考虑中期旬尺度的大气环流特征，采用简单的斜压模式，推导出旬降水距平百分率与旬环流形势场的关系，从而建立了旬降水距平百分率预报方程，与相当正压的月降水距平百分率预报方程相比，更符合常规天气预报业务中对实际大气的动力学和天气学意义的考虑，试报结果表明，动力与统计相结合的方法对旬尺度动力延伸集合预报产品的释用具有明显的效果。

Study on the Interpretation Method of Ensemble Prediction Products

This paper presents an interpretation method of blending dynamical and statistical approaches for ensemble prediction products,which establishes the prediction equations for dekad precipitation anomaly by deriving the relation between the dekad rainfall anomaly and potential height anomaly based on atmospheric dynamics equations,two-layer baroclinic model and the characteristic of medium-range dekad-scale atmospheric circulation.Comparing it with the equivalent-barotropic rainfall anomalous percentage equation the baroclinic one fits much more to the situation of real atmosphere in the low and middle latitudes.The results of experimental forecasting show that the method of blending dynamical and statistical approaches is useful for forecasting dekad rainfall anomaly by using potential height of Ensemble Prediction System(EPS).