黑龙江省玉米低温冷害发生风险趋势及预报模型

利用黑龙江省玉米主产区69个市(县)1961~2003年5~9月逐日气温、玉米发育期与冷害资料,用积温距平作为判别玉米低温冷害发生的主导因子,获得玉米主要发育时期冷害发生指标体系及其风险程度,构建玉米低温冷害风险预报模型;分析了43年来玉米低温冷害发生风险的趋势变化,采用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势检验。结果表明:1961~1983年为玉米冷害发生的高风险时期,其中1964、1969、1972、1983年是玉米冷害发生的最高风险年。1984年之后为冷害发生的低风险时期,尤其在所研究的后几年各地的UskU0.05,表明此时期积温距平水平上升趋势明显,发生玉米冷害的风险很低;玉米低温冷害风险预报模型能够对冷害发生风险、冷害程度、发生范围进行动态预测预报和灾害评估,预报模型的检验结果具有较好的客观性和适用性。

Trends Analysis and Forecast Model of Corn Chilling Damage

Using the data of daily temperature,corn development phases,and corn chilling damage during the growing periods from 1961 to 2003 from 69 counties over Heilongjiang Province,based on the principles of the accumulated temperature theory,established and analyzed are the index system,risk degree,and forecast model of chilling damage occurrence of corn during different development periods.The trends of corn chilling injury risks during the 43 years are analyzed and tested with the Mann-Kendall method.The results show that the period of 1961 to 1983 is a high-risk period of low-temperature/chilling risk with the highest risk years in 1964,1969,1972,and 1983;1983 to 2003 is the low-risk period,especially obviously increased relative accumulated temperature（low-risk period） being found in the later years.The risk forecast model of corn chilling damage can forecast and assess the risk and area of chilling damage.The outcome verification indicates that the model has good objectivity and usability.