幼年上呼吸道感染发病的预测模型研究

为找出金华市幼年上呼吸道感染发病的季节规律性及其与气候的关系，建立更为稳定、可靠的预测模型，利用基于人体热量平衡的体感温度模型计算了幼年在室内、室外有遮蔽和室外无遮蔽环境中的日体感温度。在此基础上，计算了3种环境中的旬最高、最低体感温度等因子。将一元一次线性回归、自然正交函数（EOF）和逐步回归方法结合起来，建立了上呼吸道感染的旬发病人数预测模型。经检验，炎热季节该预测模型的拟合值和实际值的变化趋势一致，峰值出现期也相同，值的差异较小。凉爽季节预测模型的拟合值和实际值的变化趋势基本一致，但拟合的峰值期不太明显，值的差异也较大。

Incidence Forecast Models of Upper Respiratory Tract Infection for Young Children

In order to find the seasonal regularities of upper respiratory tract infection for young children in Jinhua and its relations with climate,the apparent temperatures of young children were calculated based on human body heat balance.In the process of computation,three different environments(indoor,outdoor with and without shadows) were taken into account respectively.According to these results,the apparent temperatures,dekad maximum and minimum apparent temperatures,etc,were calculated.Then such techniques as linear regression analysis,natural empirical orthogonal function,and stepwise regression were integrated to establish the forecast models of upper respiratory tract infection.It was proved that the change tendency of fitting values from the model is almost identical with that of observational values in warm days and the peak values are also the same.Meanwhile,the change tendency of fitting values from the model was also basically similar with that of observational values in cold days.However,the peak values are not obvious,and the difference between fitting and observational values was comparatively great.