近40年温州双季晚稻安全齐穗期变化

依据温州全市各县(市)气象站自建站以来的逐日日平均气温,分别计算了各站的逐年22℃稳定通过终日,分析了各站该日期的变化特点,确定其变化趋势。运用SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solution)软件对各站的变化进行显著性检验,判断其变化是由于样本的抽样误差造成还是总体的期望值确实发生了变化。基于温州各站历年的22℃稳定通过终日变化特点,分两个时间段进行讨论,分别计算具有显著性变化站点1990年前后两段时期内的80%保证率22℃稳定通过终日,以此为依据确定当地双季晚稻安全齐穗期的变化,进而计算双季晚稻安全齐穗期的可推迟天数,提出播种期安排建议,从而为更好地利用气候资源,提高当地农田利用效率提供客观依据。

Variation of Safe Full Heading Period for Double Cropping Late Rice in Recent 40 Years in Wenzhou

An analysis is made of the dates of last days for daily mean temperature being stably greater than 22 ℃ in use of the data from various stations of Wenzhou,and the variation characteristics and trends are obtained.To judge the objectivity of the variation,a significance test is conducted with SPSS（Statistical Product and Service Solutions）.The results show that the dates of the last days for daily mean temperature being stably greater than 22 ℃ at some stations varied obviously after the 1990s.Under the condition of 80% assurance rate,the dates of the last days before and after 1990 are studied.The safe full-heading periods are determined,and the sowing dates are derived.The suggestions of sowing dates for double-cropping late rice are presented,which can be used as references for the better utilization of agricultural climatic resources.