临沂中尺度数值预报系统及应用

介绍了临沂中尺度数值预报系统及预报产品的释用和模式系统应用雷达资料情况,并对2005年6~10月的业务运行结果进行了检验,对小雨和中雨预报效果较好,TS评分较高,对夜间温度预报平均值绝对误差在1.52~2.52℃之间,平均均方根误差在2.01~2.93℃之间。该系统降水预报质量较高,气温预报误差小,准确率高,对定时、定点、定量的精细化预报具有较高的参考价值。应用自主开发的SDAF软件包,对系统的预报产品进行释用,研制了暴雨、空气质量、极端气温、干热风等预报方法。将多普勒雷达回波强度加入模式,改变模式水汽场,明显改进了预报。对径向速度反演降水系统内部风场进入中尺度模式进行了初步试验,得出了一些有益结论。

Linyi Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System and Its Application

The characteristics of the mesoscale numerical forecasting system developed by the Linyi Meteorological Bureau,the interpretation of the model forecast products,and the application of radar data in the model system are introduced.The evaluation of forecasting results was conducted from June to October 2005.The system displays considerable capability in short-range weather forecast for predicting precipitation and temperature.The system is considered to be valuable for improving the quantification,timeliness,and accuracy of weather forecasting.By using the self-developed SDAF software package in the application of forecasting products,the methods for forecasting heavy rainfall,air quality,extreme temperature,dry-hot winds,etc.are generated.The Doppler radar echo intensity is used to modify the humidity field in numerical model,and the forecasting results are improved obviously.The primary experiments on the retrieval of the wind vector fields from the Doppler radial velocity to modify the initial forecast fields are carried out,and some conclusions are obtained.