| 青海省泥石流预警模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖宏斌,李有宏,王青川,李海红.青海省泥石流预警模型[J].气象科技,2006,34(6):754-757. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖宏斌 李有宏 王青川 李海红 |
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| 作者单位： | 青海省气象局,西宁,810001 |
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| 基金项目： | 青海省气象局地质灾害研究课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据野外考察和分析,利用模糊数学方法,定义了青油省玉树州结古镇泥石流沟固有危险度,并以分段函数的形式定义了夏季泥石流降水指数,初步建立了当地泥石流危险度的二级综合判别预警模型。对玉树州结古镇5条泥石流沟的危险度做了判别,对不同降水级别所对应的泥石流危险度进行预报,得出相应的预警等级。并以2003年7月29日结古镇北山泥石流为例,对该模型的有效性进行了初步检验。
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 模糊数学 固有危险度 预警模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-07-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-09 |
Early Warning Model of Debris Flows |
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| Xiao Hongbin,Li Youhong,Wang Qingehuan,Li Haihong.Early Warning Model of Debris Flows[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2006,34(6):754-757. |
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| Authors: | Xiao Hongbin Li Youhong Wang Qingehuan Li Haihong |
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| Institution: | Qinghai Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810001 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the field survey and the related analysis,using the fuzzy mathematical method,the natural hazard risk of debris flows is defined,and the rainfall index for debris flows in summer as a piecewise function,is devised.A debris flow early warning model based on comprehensive judgement is established. Identification and prediction experiments are made on the hazard risks of five debris flows with the model for precipitation of various levels.Taking the debris flow happened to the north of Jiegu,Qinghai Province on 29 July 2003 as an example,a preliminary validation is conducted |
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| Keywords: | debris flow fuzzy mathematical method natural hazard risk early warning model |
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