温特斯法在夏季温度预测中的应用

温特斯法可以对具有随机性、线性、季节性变化的时间序列进行预测,用温特斯法作了一次温度预测尝试。依据温特斯法的基本理论及3个平滑方程的递推公式、初始值公式和预测模型公式,将夏季6、7、8月的月平均温度看作具有随机性、线性、季节性变化的时间序列,应用温特斯法建立了河南省5个代表站夏季温度预测模型,并对2000~2004年夏季温度进行试报,得到了较好的预测结果,平均预测准确率(TS)为75%,此方法可作为预测气温的一种方法,在业务预报中应用。

Application of Winters Method to Summer Temperature Forecast

The Winters method can be used to predict the time series that is of randomicity,linearity and(seasonal) variation.The basic theories of the Winters method and the recursion formulas of three smooth equations are introduced.By taking the temperature of June,July and August as the random,linear time series with seasonal variation,the prediction model is designed with the summer temperature data from five stations.The performance of the model is evaluated by using the summer temperature data from 2000 to 2004 and the results are satisfactory.The average forecast accuracy is 75% and this method can be used as one of operational forecasting methods.