十一运会各赛区气象灾害风险评估

利用山东省17个比赛城市1971—2007年8—10月的逐日气象资料,用统计方法对各种灾害性天气进行了风险评估。结果表明:十一运会期间有9种气象灾害,不同月份的气象灾害风险有差异,其风险等级由高到低依次为:8月雷电、暴雨、台风、大雾、冰雹、大雨、高温、大风;9月雷电、大雾、大风、暴雨、大雨、连阴雨、台风、高温和冰雹;10月大雨、大雾、大风、连阴雨、暴雨、高温、冰雹、台风。开幕式、闭幕式日发生上述气象灾害的概率很小。评估结果在十一运会气象保障中得到应用。

Risk Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters during 11th Chinese National Games in Shandong

Based on the data between August and October from 1971 to 2007 in Shandong, several disasters are evaluated. The results show that there are 9 kinds of meteorological disasters that may influence the 11th Chinese National Games, and the risk grades in different months vary. To sort the risk grades from low to high, the influencing meteorological disasters in August, September, and October include: thunderstorm, rainstorm, typhoon, fog, hail, heavy rainfall, high temperature, continuious rain, and strong wind in succession in August; thunderstorm, fog, strong wind, rainstorm, heavy rainfall, typhoon, high temperature, and hail in September; heavy rain, fog, strong wind, continuous rain, rainstorm, high temperature, hail, and typhoon in October. The occurence probability of metereological disasters is very low on the opening ceremony day and closing ceremony day. The evaluation results were applied in the meteorological support of the 11th Chinese National Games