两种初始场MM5模式预报效果对比评估

为了解本地MM5模式的预报性能，根据其预报结果，检验了基于NCEP和T213两种初始场MM5模式在河北以及京津地区2007年8月至2008年1月的降水、日极值温度和相对湿度的预报效果。结果表明，MM5晴雨（雪）预报的准确率较高，具有较好的参考价值，而对于降水的分级预报，随着预报时效的延长和降水强度的增加，其可用性逐渐降低，但整体来看基于NCEP初始场的预报均比T213初始场预报效果明显；在日极值温度预报中，最低温度效果优于最高温度，T213初始场的预报对日最高温度预报的准确率较高，NCEP初始场的预报则在日最低温度预报中略胜一筹；对08：00相对湿度的预报，两者的预报效果基本相同，绝对误差都在15％左右。

Comparison and Evaluation of MM5 Forecasting Results between Two Different Initial Fields

In order to know the forecasting performance of the localized MM5 model,the forecast capabilities of MM5 in precipitation,extreme temperature and humidity are verified and assessed in statistical methods according to the forecast results in the later half of 2007 with the NCEP and T213 initial fields in the Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin region.The results indicate:(1) The accuracy of fine-or-rainy forecasting is higher,with better value for reference,but for grade forecasting,the usability of forecasts decrease...