NWP产品在强对流天气诊断分析中的应用

利用ECMWF、T213、T106数值预报产品及各物理量场,对已知中尺度系统发生发展的大尺度条件,预报中尺度环流出现的统计概率进行探讨:首先将武汉中心气象台过去总结的强对流天气模型与数值预报产品中的环流形势进行对比分析,当所预报的环流形势满足强对流天气模型时,认为大尺度条件将会促进中尺度天气的发生发展。再对数值预报产品中的有关物理要素场和值进行诊断分析,当所诊断的结果反映出有中尺度次级环流出现或有利中尺度对流天气发生时,最后对强对流天气落区、落点及降水性质进行诊断分析。同时,还利用AREM中尺度数值模式对2002年7月21~24日过程进行诊断分析,预报效果较好。,通过诊断分析,得出了强对流天气落区、落点及降水性质与各要素之间预报场和值的关系,同时也为今后精细化预报提供了启示和参考。

Application of Numerical Forecast Products to Diagnostic Analysis of Severe Convective Weather

By using the products of ECMWF,T213,T106,and various physical parameter fields,the large-scale conditions for mesoscale system occurring and the statistical occurrence probability of mesoscale systems are discussed.The contrast analysis is conducted between the severe convective weather models that have been summed up by the Wuhan Central Meteorological Office and the circulation patterns from numerical weather prediction(NWP) products.When the NWP forecast circulation according with the severe convection weather model,the mesoscale weather would be resulted from the large scale conditions.The diagnostic analysis is made of the relative physical factors of the numerical forecasting products.If the results show that the mesoscale circulation is favorable to the occurrence of mesoscale weather,then the raining areas and the precipitation characteristics of the severe convection weather system are diagnosed and analyzed.Meanwhile,the AREM mesoscale model products are used to diagnose and analyze the weather process of 21 July 2002,and good results are received.