滇西北高原一次冰雹灾害天气过程成因诊断及预报

对2010年7月27日发生在滇西北宁蒗县境内一次局地降雹灾害过程进行诊断分析,结果表明:本次降雹过程的主要客观物理量条件是具备充沛的水汽条件、不稳定条件及较强的垂直上升运动条件,但过程前除具备降雹的不稳定条件外,水汽及动力条件均不满足;降雹过程前的数值预报产品分析表明,数值预报产品对本次过程的主要影响系统、水汽条件、垂直运动条件、不稳定条件均有一定的预测能力。因此,在分析主要影响系统及物理量诊断产品(包括数值预报产品)条件下,结合卫星云图及雷达回波可对局地冰雹灾害天气提前预报预警。

Causal Diagnosis and Analysis of a Disastrous Hail Event in Yunnan

A diagnostic analysis is made of a hail event happened in Ninglang in the northwestern Yunnan Province. The results indicate that the main objective conditions of this hail process include abundant moisture, instable stratification and strong vertical ascending motion. Before the process, the water vapor and dynamical forcing conditions were not favorable, except the unstable conditions. By analyzing the numerical prediction products before the hail process, the forecasting of major impact systems, water vapor, uplift motion, and instability conditions were conducted. The forecasting and warning of severe hail events can be well realized by analyzing the major influence systems, physical diagnostic products, including numerical forecast products, in combination with satellite images and radar echo data.