基于GFS产品和卡尔曼滤波的嘉兴市温度客观预报

利用NCEP提供的高时空分辨率的GFS（Global Forecast System）数值预报产品和当地地面观测气温资料，经SPSS（Statistical Product and Service Solution）逐步回归分析，建立了嘉兴市24h和48h日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温初始预报方程，采用卡尔曼滤波方法进行以上6项目的逐日滚动预报。对最近2年来的预报结果检验表明：平均气温的预报效果最佳，最低气温次之，最高气温的准确率相对最低；随着时效增长，误差增大；不同季节，参考价值高的项目各不相同，秋季的最高温度误差较小，而冬季则最低气温准确率最高。分析结果可以作为日常预报中一种有效的参考。

Objective Temperature Forecast in Jiaxing Based on GFS Products and Kalman Filtering

By using local surface temperature and high temporal-spatial resolution numerical forecasting products of GFS(Global Forecast System) provided by NCEP,the preliminary forecast equations for daily average,highest and lowest temperature within 24 and 48 hours are established with the SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solution) stepwise regression method,and the day-to-day rolling forecasting was made with the Kalman filtering method.The results from June 2005 to May 2007 show that the average temperature f...