奥运期间天津极端天气气候事件背景分析

利用1951～2006年天津7月下旬至9月上旬的日最高气温、降水量、最大风速和8月扬沙、雾、雷暴和冰雹的观测资料,统计了对足球比赛影响较大的高温、暴雨、大风、雾和雷暴等极端天气气候事件发生的概率及分布特点,以期为2008年北京奥运会天津分赛场的足球小组赛提供气候背景服务信息。结果表明:在奥运会期间,天津易出现高温、暴雨、雷暴和雾等不利天气;而大风、扬沙、冰雹的概率相对较小。相对而言,8月中旬至9月上旬,这些不利的极端天气气候事件发生的概率小,对各项赛事的开展较为有利。

Climatic Background Analysis of Extreme Weather/Climate Events in Tianjin during Beijing Olympic Games

Based on the observational data of daily maximum temperature,precipitation and maximum wind speed during Olympic Games and blowing dust,heavy fog,thunderstorm and hail weather during August from 1951 to 2006 in Tianjin,the probabilities and distribution characteristics of the extreme weather/climate events such as high temperature,rainstorm,gale,heavy fog and thunderstorm,which is disadvantageous to sports competition,are analyzed in order to provide meteorological support for football games in Tianjin during the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008.The results show that the occurrence probabilities of high temperature,rainstorm,thunderstorm,and heavy fog are higher,while the occurrence probabilities of gale,blowing dust and hail are lower.