晚稻单产动态预测方法研究

晚稻单产与气象条件关系分析表明：气象要素是影响相邻两年晚稻单产变化的主要影响因素,尤其是气温和日照.根据业务服务的需要,提出利用晚稻主产省份的产量资料和代表站的旬平均气温、旬降水量和旬日照时数等气象资料,运用综合聚类原理,建立全国晚稻产量动态预报方法.此方法能够在晚稻播种一段时间后动态预测晚稻单产,具有简便、实用、准确率较高的特点,并且克服了常用回归方法在较短时间内筛选预测因子难的缺点,有一定的业务应用价值.

A Method for Dynamically Predicting Late Rice Yields

The study of the relationship between weather conditions and the unit yield of late rice shows that weather factors, especially air temperature and sunshine, are essential to the unit yield change of late rice for two years in succession. According to the needs of operational service, a method of forecasting dynamically the trends of the late rice yield for the whole country is presented, based on the theory of synthesize cluster analysis and such data as the late rice unit yields of the main planting provinces in China, average air temperature and ten-day sunshine duration. The method can be used to dynamically predict the unit yield of late rice after having sowed for some time, being simple and practical and having high accuracy. It is difficult to screen out the predicting factors within a short time by using the common regression method; therefore, this method is of better value in operational application.