风电场风机覆冰期预报方法

采用Makkonen结冰增长模型镶嵌冰表面辐射融化模型建立适用于风机覆冰的预报模型，基于WRF耦合CALMET综合模式预测结果和风机性能参数驱动模型，进行风机覆冰开始和结束时间的预报。以湖北通山九宫山风电场为研究对象，对2012年12月至2013年12月期间监测到19次风机覆冰进行分析，分别采用提前1 d、提前2 d、提前3 d三种预报方案开展覆冰起止时间的预报，发现该模型对风机覆冰具有一定的提前预警能力，且越临近覆冰发生时间，预报准确性越高。

Method for Forecasting Duration of Wind Turbine Icing in Wind Farms

Based on the aggregative model CALMET coupled with WRF and performance parameters of the wind turbine, this paper set up the wind turbine icing forecast model by using the Makkonen icing growth model coupled with the ice surface radiation melting model. It could be used to forecast the starting and ending times of wind turbine icing. The wind turbine icing has happened 19 times from December 2012 to December 2013 in Jiugongshan Wind Farm. As the research object, three kinds of prediction schemes were used to forecast the starting and ending time of wind turbine icing, in which forecasts were made one day, two days and three days ahead, respectively. It is found that this model has certain prediction ability for wind turbine icing, and the forecasting accuracy of ice starting time was higher when closer to the ice starting time.