Climate and global grain yield variability

Historical grain yields from several countries were analyzed to determine the variability of grain yield. This was accomplished by assuming a linear technology trend and analyzing the deviations from this trend. The deviation was assumed to be primarily an effect of weather. Using 10 percent deviation from trend as a threshold, it was determined that for each of seven countries the probability of a poor yield year ranged from 17 in India and the United States to 33 percent in Canada and the U.S.S.R. The probability of two consecutive poor wheat yield years was highest in Canada (17 percent) and lowest in Argentina (6 percent). The probability of a poor year occurring in the same year in both the United States and the U.S.S.R. was about 7–8 percent. The highest variability in yield has occurred in Canada, but variability in India has increased substantially since the 1960's.