Climate change and soil freezing dynamics: historical trends and projected changes |
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Authors: | Hugh A L Henry |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Biology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada, N6A 5B7 |
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Abstract: | Changes to soil freezing dynamics with climate change can modify ecosystem carbon and nutrient losses. Soil freezing is influenced
strongly by both air temperature and insulation by the snowpack, and it has been hypothesized that winter climate warming
may lead to increased soil freezing as a result of reduced snowpack thickness. I used weather station data to explore the
relationships between winter air temperature, precipitation and soil freezing for 31 sites in Canada, ranging from the temperate
zone to the high Arctic. Inter-annual climate variation and associated soil temperature variation over the last 40 years were
examined and used to interpolate the effects of projected climate change on soil freezing dynamics within sites using linear
regression models. Annual soil freezing days declined with increasing mean winter air temperature despite decreases in snow
depth and cover, and reduced precipitation only increased annual soil freezing days in the warmest sites. Annual soil freeze–thaw
cycles increased in both warm and dry winters, although the effects of precipitation were strongest in sites that experience
low mean winter precipitation. Overall, it was projected that by 2050, changes in winter temperature will have a much stronger
effect on annual soil freezing days and freeze–thaw cycles than changes in total precipitation, with sites close to but below
freezing experiencing the largest changes in soil freezing days. These results reveal that experimental data relevant to the
effects of climate changes on soil freezing dynamics and changes in associated soil physical and biological processes are
lacking. |
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