2010年国家级和自治区级业务预测产品对内蒙古短期气候预测能力的检验

对2010年1-12月和春季(3-5月)、夏季(6-8月)国家气候中心和内蒙古气候中心的短期气候预测业务质量进行评分,以检验国家级和自治区级气候预测业务对内蒙古的预测能力.通过对比分析表明:总体来看,2010年短期气候预测质量检验评分内蒙古气候中心91.7％的月份温度预测和75％的月份降水预测高于国家气候中心,其中,春季温度预测较差；夏季降水预测较差.平均而言,业务预测质量明显高于模式产品质量.因此,需要在内蒙古业务预测分析参考时注意,降水预测的指导能力相对较弱.

Test of Operation Forecast Production of National Level and Autonomous Regional Level on the Predictive Ability of Short-term Climate of Inner Mongolia in 2010 Years

Give marks to the short-term Climate prediction quality of National Climate Center and Inner Mongolia Climate Center in January to December in 2010,in Spring(3-5 month) and in Summer(6-8 month),in order to test the ability of national and autonomous Climate forecasting for Inner Mongolia.Through a comparative analysis it shows: generally,the short-term Climate forecast quality grade of 91.7% monthly temperature forecast and 75% monthly precipitation forecast of Inner Mongolia Climate Center are higher than the grade of National Climate Center.The temperature prediction in Spring and precipitation prediction are poor.On average,professional quality is better than model product quality.Therefore,it is needed to notice that the guiding ability of precipitation prediction is relatively poor while Inner Mongolia professional forecast analysis referance.