| 提高新一代天气雷达在临近预报中准确率的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕娜,方晓红,侯文秀,刘霞,丁志征.提高新一代天气雷达在临近预报中准确率的分析[J].内蒙古气象,2012(2):32-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕娜 方晓红 侯文秀 刘霞 丁志征 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 乌拉特前旗气象局,内蒙古乌拉特前旗,014400
2. 巴彦淖尔市气象局,内蒙古临河,015000 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章应用新一代天气雷达资料,并结合天气图、T-logp图等资料,对发生于2011年6月13日内蒙古西部巴彦淖尔市东部地区的一次局地强对流天气过程进行了分析。通过分析雷达冰雹概率、垂直累积含水量、回波顶高、风暴追踪信息等产品以及自动站天气实况等发现,用于短时临近预报的雷达冰雹概率及风暴追踪信息产品在该次强对流天气过程中与天气实况并不能很好地符合。其原因:一方面与雷达对风暴的跟踪和SCIT算法有关,另一方面表明天气背景以及短时强对流天气所具有局地性特点在短时临近预报中未能充分考虑。通过该个例的分析,对于业务人员认识本地区的强对流天气发生特点并提高预报准确率具有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 强回波 雷暴 新一代天气雷达 短临预报的准确率 |
Analysis on Improving the Accuracy of Applying the New Generation Weather Radar to Nowcasting |
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| Institution: | Lv Na1,Fang Xiaohong2,Hou Wenxiu1,Liu Xia2,Ding Zhizhen2(1.Wulateqianqi Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Wulateqianqi 014400;2.Bayanor Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Linhe 015000) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the new generation Doppler weather radar data,synoptic charts and T_lnp chart,a local severe convective weather occurred in the eastern part of the Bayannaoer district of western Inner Mongolia on June 13,2011 is investigated.By analyzing the hail probability,VIL(Vertical Integrated Liquid),height of echo top,storm tracking and AWS real weather,it can be found that the products of radar hail probability and storm tracking for nowcasting do not agree with the real weather very well.These disagreements,on one hand,are related to the algorithms of radar storm tracking and SCIT.On the other hand,they are caused by not taking into account the synoptic patterns and local severe weather features in nowcasting practice.Through the case study,it is crucial for operational personnel to knowledge the local severe weather features in this area and to improve the accuracy of nowcasting. |
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| Keywords: | Severe radar echo storms new generation weather radar accuracy of nowcasting |
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