A Study of the Impacts of the Spatial Differences in Climate Engineering Programs on the Extreme Intensities of High-Temperature Events in China Under A 1.5°C Temperature Control Target

Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering (G4 test) and non-climate engineering (RCP4.5), the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs (2020 to 2069) and after the implementation of those programs (2070 to 2099) were analyzed using a Weibull Distribution Theory. The results indicated the following: (1) The results of this study’s comparison between the two scenarios had shown that climate engineering had not fundamentally changed the spatial features of the high and low differentiations for the extreme high-temperature intensities with the different recurrence periods in China. It was found that in both scenarios, the extreme high-temperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region; (2) This study’s comparison results of the two scenarios had indicated that the climate engineering processes during the two study periods could potentially help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China. Furthermore, the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation; (3) This study’s results of the comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggested that there would be no strong rebounding of the extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs, and the mitigation effects on the extreme high-temperature intensities during the implementation of the climate engineering programs would be significantly higher than after the implementation of the programs; (4) When comparisons were made of the changes of the average temperatures in China before and after the implementation of climate engineering programs, the results had shown that the average temperature in China had been reduced by at least 1.25℃ as a result of climate engineering, which would effectively alleviate the global warming trend, and could also be conducive to the realization of a temperature control target of 1.5℃ in accordance with the Paris Agreement.