| PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NI?O EVENT PROBABILITY |
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| 引用本文： | 栗珂,刘耀武,杨文峰,徐小红,郑小华.PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NI?O EVENT PROBABILITY[J].热带气象学报(英文版),2001,7(2):163-174. |
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| 作者姓名： | 栗珂 刘耀武 杨文峰 徐小红 郑小华 |
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| 作者单位： | Shanxi Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences |
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| 基金项目： | Research project of meteorological science and technology in China (96-908-05-03) |
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| 摘 要： | Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was determined
by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order
auto-regression predictive model, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence
of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability for 2001 is 44 %, and it is
61 % for 2002.
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| 关 键 词： | El Nino event probability prognostication Markov process |
PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NI?O EVENT PROBABILITY |
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| LI Ke,LIU Yao-wu,YANG Wen-feng,XU Xiao-hong and ZHENG Xiao-hua.PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NI?O EVENT PROBABILITY[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2001,7(2):163-174. |
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| Authors: | LI Ke LIU Yao-wu YANG Wen-feng XU Xiao-hong and ZHENG Xiao-hua |
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| Institution: | Shanxi Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, |
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| Abstract: | Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was determined by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order auto-regression predictive model, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability for 2001 is 44 %, and it is 61 % for 2002. |
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| Keywords: | El Nino event probability prognostication Markov process |
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