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| VERIFICATION OF TYPHOON FORECASTS BY THE GRAPES MODEL | |
| 作者姓名： | 宋 煜 叶成志 黄 振 濮文耀 |
| 作者单位： | SONG Yv,Huang Zhen(Dalian Meteorological Observatory, Dalian 116001 China);YE Cheng-zhi(Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410007 China);PU Wen-yao(Dalian Weather Modification Office, Dalian 116001 China) |
| 基金项目： | Key Science Project for Hunan Meteorological Bureau (200602;200705) |
| 摘 要： | Four landfalling typhoon cases in 2005 were selected for a numerical simulation study with the
Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) model. The preliminary assessment
results of the performance of the model, including the predictions of typhoon track, landfall time, location
and intensity, etc., are presented and the sources of errors are analyzed. The 24-hour distance forecast error
of the typhoon center by the model is shown to be about 131 km, while the 48-hour error is 252 km. The
model was relatively more skilful at forecasts of landfall time and locations than those of intensity at
landfall. On average, the 24-hour forecasts were slightly better than the 48-hour ones. An analysis of data
impacts indicates that the assimilation of unconventional observation data is essential for the improvement
of the model simulation. The model could also be improved by increasing model resolution to simulate the
mesoscale and fine scale systems and by improving methods of terrain refinement processing. |
VERIFICATION OF TYPHOON FORECASTS BY THE GRAPES MODEL |
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| SONG Yv,YE Cheng-zhi,Huang Zhen and PU Wen-yao.VERIFICATION OF TYPHOON FORECASTS BY THE GRAPES MODEL[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2010,16(1):77-81. | |
| Authors: | SONG Yv YE Cheng-zhi Huang Zhen and PU Wen-yao |
| Institution: | 1. Dalian Meteorological Observatory, Dalian 116001 China 2. Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410007 China 3. Dalian Weather Modification Office, Dalian 116001 China |
| Abstract: | Four landfalling typhoon cases in 2005 were selected for a numerical simulation study with the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) model.The preliminary assessment results of the performance of the model,including the predictions of typhoon track,landfall time,location and intensity,etc.,are presented and the sources of errors are analyzed.The 24-hour distance forecast error of the typhoon center by the model is shown to be about 131 km,while the 48-hour error is 252 km.The model was ... |
| Keywords: | GRAPES model landfalling typhoon verification |
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