未来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害变化的数值模拟

使用高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3），单向嵌套一个全球模式，对未来我国南方冰雪灾害在IPCC SRES A2情景下的变化进行了数值模拟。结果表明：未来南方地区低温日数整体将减少，但在广东和广西北部部分地区连续低温日数有增加现象；降雪日数和连续降雪日数会减少，但在江西等地降雪量将有所增加，同时强降雪事件在江西等地将增多，引起地面最大积雪深度和最大持续积雪日数的增加；湖南和贵州东部地区冻雨日数会减少，而在青藏高原东麓等地冻雨日数会增加。

Simulation of Changes in Cold Events in Southern China Under Global Warming

Multi-decadal climate change simulations have been conducted over China using a regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM3) under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. This paper focuses on future changes in cold events in southern China. The results show that the climate warming will lead to generally less cold days over the study region, but slightly increased consecutive cold days in some local areas of northern parts of Guangdong and Guangxi; and to less snow days and consecutive snow days, but increased intensity of snow events and consequently wider snow coverage over Jiangxi Province and parts of other southern provinces. The day number of ice rain will decrease in Hunan Province and the eastern part of Guizhou Province, while increase around the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.