中国电力行业碳排放达峰及减排潜力分析

推动电力行业低碳发展是中国有效控制CO₂排放和推动尽早达峰的重要抓手。在分别利用学习曲线工具和自下而上技术核算方式分析风电、光伏两类主要的可再生电力和其他各类电源发展趋势的基础上,综合评估了既有政策和强化政策条件下2035年前中国电力行业能源活动碳排放变化趋势。研究发现,既有政策情景下电力行业碳排放在2030年左右达到峰值,届时非化石能源在发电量中比重为44%,而通过强化推动能源绿色低碳发展的相关政策,2025年前即可达到电力行业碳排放峰值,2030年非化石电力在发电量中比重可以提升至51%,其中可再生电力加速发展将分别贡献2025、2030和2035年当年减排量（相对于既有政策情景）的45%、54%和62%。尽管从保障电力稳定安全供应角度,煤电装机仍有一定增长空间,但考虑到电力行业绿色低碳和可持续发展的长期需求,仍应加强对煤电装机的有效控制,“十四五”期间努力将煤电装机控制在11亿kW左右的水平。

Research on peaking carbon emissions of power sector in China and the emissions mitigation analysis

The power sector is a major carbon emissions source from fossil fuel combustion, and it plays an important role in controlling China’s emissions and achieving emissions peak target. In this paper, learning curve tool is used to evaluate the development of wind power and solar PV power as the two most promising renewable sources, while bottom up calculating method is used to analyze other technologies’ developments under current policy scenario and enhanced policy scenario. The carbon emissions under two policy scenarios are calculated before 2035, and it is found that carbon emissions peak around 2030 with non-fossil fuels accounting for 44% in total power generation under current policy scenario, while they peak before 2025 with non-fossil fuels taking a higher share of 51% at 2030 under enhanced polices. The developments of renewables are major drivers lowering the emissions from power sector, contributing 45%, 54% and 62% of the total emission reductions at 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively. On the other hand, though the coal power capacity still sees room to grow from the perspective of safeguarding the power supply, it is still necessary to enhance the control on coal power capacity and make best efforts to keep it under 1100 GW.